Mercedes could be left “hanging on” to win this year’s titles after appearing to have front-loaded the development of their 2026 car, according to Sky Sports F1’s Bernie Collins.
The Silver Arrows made a dominant start to the season following the introduction of new chassis and power unit regulations, with Kimi Antonelli winning five races in a row to establish a lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship after his team-mate George Russell had won the opening race.
However, Mercedes have won just two of the six ensuing races, with extra performance added from upgrades helping Ferrari and McLaren to also claim two victories apiece in that time.
The convincing nature of reigning world champion Lando Norris’ wins for McLaren at the last two rounds – either side of the summer break – in Hungary and the Netherlands suggests momentum may have swung, with that feeling only heightened by Mercedes boss Toto Wolff saying after Sunday’s race that his team “haven’t got the money” to match their rivals’ upgrades.
Speaking on the latest episode of Sky Sports’ The F1 Show podcast, former Aston Martin head of strategy Collins reacted to Wolff’s comments and the situation that now faces Mercedes.
“Mercedes have front-loaded it and that shows a confidence in their power unit and their overall chassis design,” Sky Sports F1 pundit Collins said.
“We had it for so many years at Force India, having a good reliable car for early-season races before people got on top of their reliability is where we scored all our points.
“For many years we got our strong position in the championship just in the first six races by finishing the race in a reasonable position. So, the front-loading it bit, I get.”
Craig Slater discusses the biggest talking points off the back of the Dutch Grand Prix, including if the Championship chase is still on for Lando Norris
While Ferrari and McLaren have regularly brought significant upgrades, Mercedes’ first major package since May’s Canadian Grand Prix isn’t expected to arrive until the rescheduled Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia from October 2-4, before which there are races in Italy, Spain and Azerbaijan.
Antonelli currently holds a 59-point lead at the top of the standings over Russell and Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton, with an in-form Norris 83 points back in fourth. In the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes are 87 points clear of Ferrari, while McLaren trail by 162 points.
Collins continued: “Where the money lies, who knows? What the team bosses say to us is often not [the truth]. Maybe Wolff is counting the Mercedes upgrade that is coming to Malaysia [within his calculations].
“Mercedes have sort of put their money on the front end. There are pros and cons to that.
Highlights from the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix
“Getting the points on the board early when other people are struggling is the pro, but conversely, then you’re not gathering the data and learning about the development for the next six months when other people are.
“They’ve put their decision-making one way, and it will be interesting to see if they can hold on.”
Changing calendar creates further complication
Collins also pointed out that uncertainty over the remainder of the schedule has created additional complications for teams’ upgrade plans.
The Bahrain Grand Prix is taking place in Malaysia, having been postponed in April because of conflict in the Middle East.
The Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, which was also meant to take place in April, was cancelled, while it remains to be seen whether Qatar (Nov 27-29) and Abu Dhabi (Dec 4-6) will be able to host the final two rounds of the season, with European venues on standby to potentially replace them.
Mercedes team-mates Kimi Antonelli and George Russell reflect on their Dutch Grand Prix race
“An additional difficulty for the teams has been created by the calendar continuing to change with the ongoing situation in the Middle East,” Collins said.
“It’s hard for teams to decide whether to put more emphasis on high-speed or low-speed corners, for example, because you don’t know what the make-up of tracks going forward is.
“That’s quite interesting, where they prioritise their upgrades in terms of overall car performance.”
Formula 1 heads to Monza for Ferrari’s home race at the Italian Grand Prix on September 4-6, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime
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