The big winner from Coca-Cola’s Trump-inspired sugar push

Jordan Hayes typically steers clear of politics. He did not vote in the 2024 election and has mixed feelings about Donald Trump.

So the 37-year-old from California was surprised to learn last week that he stands with the president on at least one issue – Coke made with cane sugar is better.

“There’s a different kind of sweetness involved,” said Hayes, a longtime fan of cane sugar Coke, which is marketed in the US as Mexican Coke and differs from the corn syrup version typically sold there.

It’s available to Americans at a premium but Hayes contends the higher price is worth it. The president made a similar case last week, when he announced that Coca-Cola, at his urging, had agreed to use cane sugar in the US.

The sugar endorsement by Trump might seem unusual on its face from a man famous for his preference for Diet Coke, which is sugar free.

But it was just the latest example of his support for the industry, which has been known in Washington for decades for its outsize political donations, ability to get the White House on the phone and legendary lobbying operations.

“Don’t [expletive] with sugar”, former Republican House Speaker John Boehner noted in his memoir.

The sector has long benefited from government policies, including high tariffs that have propped up the sugar prices in the US, which often run double the world price, yielding billions of extra dollars a year for producers.

Under the Trump administration, the US has expanded those supports, tightening restrictions on imports and increasing its price guarantees for sugar farmers as part of the Trump-backed “Big Beautiful Bill”.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr has taken aim at the industry’s biggest competitor, threatening a ban on corn syrup, which he has called “poison”.

The Sugar Alliance, which represents the sector, did not respond to requests for comment on Coca-Cola’s decision, for which Trump took credit.

But analysts said the move put sugar farmers in a sweet spot, increasing demand and ultimately how much they get for their crop.

“They have the president both championing restrictions that keep out foreign competition and also encouraging more use of sugar,” said Colin Grabow, a trade specialist at the Cato Institute. “This is fantastic for them.”

Coca-Cola has said its new offering, made with cane sugar and set to launch this autumn, will complement its existing line-up of colas.

Industry experts said they did not expect the plan to lead to a sudden, wholesale shift to sugar, noting the high price of the ingredient and limits on domestic supply. But just the possibility sent waves through the food industry.

Corn syrup manufacturer Archer Daniels Midland briefly plunged more than 6% before recovering, while the Corn Refiners Association, which represents makers of corn syrup, warned of rural job losses and other economic damage.

Iowa corn farmer John Maxwell, whose family has farmed since the 1850s, said he was surprised by the president’s position, given the way he has cast himself as a champion of American jobs.

“He’s tooted that horn real hard… so to take a stance was surprising to me,” he said.

Bob Hemesath, a hog and corn farmer in Iowa, was likewise puzzled.

“Going away from high fructose corn syrup will hurt jobs here and hurt farmers here and it kind of goes against everything the president and his administration are trying to do,” he said.

Vincent Smith, director of agricultural policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said he was surprised to see Trump risk support from corn growers – a key part of his base and also traditionally powerful in Washington.

It is also a far bigger group than sugar farmers, who number only about 4,000 in the US, less than a quarter of which produce sugar cane.

“Do you want to alienate 200,000 people or do you want to alienate 4,000 families?” he asked, while noting that his review of political contributions between 2018 and 2022 found members of the Sugar Alliance gave more than any other agricultural interest group, despite being small in number.

Trump-backed groups are among the ones in recent years to have received significant donations from the Fanjul family, Florida-based sugar titans, according to OpenSecrets.

“If you can write large cheques for the election or the president, you do get access,” Smith said.

In January, when Coca-Cola presented Trump with personalised cans of diet cola, Trump raised sugar use with the company, getting Jose Fanjul on the phone to discuss the issue, according to Josh Dawsey’s new book 2024: How Trump Retook the White House.

Whether Americans will go for it remains an open question.

Mexican Coke, which Coca-Cola has offered in the US for two decades, has gained a devoted following from customers like Hayes.

But the company’s decision to start selling it had more to do with tapping into an immigrant market and nostalgia for glass bottles than health or flavour benefits.

In recent years its primary focus has been expanding low and no sugar options, as concerns about sugar and the rise of anti-obesity drugs threaten its grip on the beverage market.

Health experts say there is no conclusive evidence to justify favouring one sweetener over the other.

Both sugars increase all risk factors and there is no significant difference between them, said Kimber Stanhope, a researcher and nutritional biologist at the University of California, Davis, who has run tests comparing the impact of two weeks of consumption of sugar and corn syrup.

She said there were questions about precisely what goes into corn syrup used in soda, which could lead to health differences outside of a lab. But she dismissed arguments that regular sugar is less processed as “completely quibbling”, noting that both products require stripping out fibre and other nutritional benefits.

Debates over whether Coke with cane sugar really tastes superior are also likely to continue to bubble.

Richard Trappasse, a 48-year-old who lives in Tennessee, consumes a Coke or two a day and collects Coca-Cola memorabilia such as ornaments and vintage glass bottles. He prides himself on being able to distinguish Coke from Pepsi by the number of bubbles.

After hearing the hype about Mexican Coke a few years ago, he enlisted his wife’s help to conduct a blind, side-by-side taste test of the two different formulations.

“The first thing I said was, ‘Did you put the same soda in the glass to trick me?'”, he recalled. “Then I was like, ‘They taste exactly the same’.”

Despite his own indifference, Mr Trappasse said he thought Trump’s championship of sugar would appeal to people suspicious of corn syrup and sentimental for the Coca-Cola of the past.

“We’re going to bring sugar back to our classic Coca-Cola product – that hits with his fans,” he said.